This Movie Is Stumping Experts on How Many Oscars It Will Win

Even movie experts are split on how many Oscars Sinners will be taking home at the upcoming 98th Academy Awards. The 2025 film, starring actor Michael B. Jordan and directed by Ryan Coogler, made headlines when it earned a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations in late January. Despite that, given its competition with One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and more during award season, the movie is only expected to win in a handful of the categories it’s been nominated in. But with Sinners gaining some momentum before the 2026 Oscars, which will air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC, not even prediction markets are sure about the number of golden statues that it will take home.

Experts are divided on Sinners Oscar haul

Betting markets are surprisingly divided when it comes to how many Oscars Sinners will win.

As of March 10, users on Polymarket believe that the film will be able to nab 3 (24%), 4 (26%), or 5 (26%) Academy Awards, with only a handful thinking it will grab more than that — 14% for 6 Oscars and just 4% for 7. This spread is pretty much the same on Kalshi too, which has Sinners most likely winning 3 (23%), 4 (26%), or 5 (24%) statues; in addition, 6% have placed their bets on it winning 2 Oscars, while 12% think it will earn 6. Beyond that, there are a brave few (between 2 and 3%) who shockingly believe the film will get 10 or more Oscars.

There are several award categories that Sinners is locked to win based on recent odds. The clearest are Ryan Coogler (who was both a director and writer of the film) to win for Best Original Screenplay at around 95% of the betting pool, casting director Francine Maisler for Best Casting (a new category for this year’s Oscars) at about 75%, and composer Ludwig Goransson for Best Original Score at over 90%. Any other movie winning in these categories would be considered an upset.

After that, Sinners has a good shot at winning Best Actor, with Michael B. Jordan taking home the coveted Actor Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor at the beginning of March. The odds were not in his favor at that point since Timothée Chalamet, for his role in Marty Supreme, had been fairly dominant in the category with his wins at the Critics’ Choice Award and Golden Globes. But Jordan’s surprise upset has seen the momentum greatly shift in his favor, with him getting nearly 40% of the bets. So it’s essentially a toss-up between him and Chalamet heading into the Oscars.

It also won’t be too far out of left field for Sinners to win for Best Cinematography, with Autumn Durald Arkapaw holding onto roughly 30% of the poll. That said, One Battle After Another’s Michael Bauman is still heavily favored to win with nearly 60% of the vote.

If the film is able to take home the Oscars for Best Actor and Best Cinematography, it has a stronger shot at winning the greatest prize of Best Picture. One Battle After Another remains in the lead at around 77%, but Sinners has an outside shot at around 20%. It should be noted that the movie brought home the Actor Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast. And the sheer number of Oscar nominations it has received that stunningly includes every technical category, like Best Visual Effects, Best Costume Design, and Best Film Editing, shows that the Academy voters are behind the movie.

That said, One Battle After Another will be a juggernaut and is the heavy favorite to receive the Oscars for Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Best Supporting Actor (Sean Penn), Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Film Editing.

Source: Comingsoon.net