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Here’s Who Will Win the 2026 Oscars According to the Odds

We’re only a week away from the 2026 Oscars, and many fans want to know the latest odds on who will win every category. The 98th Academy Awards, which is set to air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu, will be the final battleground between some of the best movies last year, including Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Frankenstein. After the Oscar nominations were announced in late January, we’ve seen the results from other award shows, like the Golden Globes and most recently the SAG-AFTRA’s Actor Awards. So taking those into consideration, along with predictions from experts and betting markets, here’s who people think will take home the golden statue.

Full list of odds for the 2026 Oscars

Below are the odds for the 2026 Oscars for all categories, including the major ones like Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor. We will include predictions and odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and a poll from Gold Derby (in that order), based on results as of March 6, 2026. [Note: “<1%” means that the odds are less than 1%.]

Best Picture

  • One Battle After Another – 76% (Kalshi), 77% (Polymarket), 76.26% (Gold Derby)
  • Sinners – 21%, 19%, 19.81%
  • Hamnet – 3%, 2%, 1.29%
  • Train Dreams – <1%, <1%, 0.85%
  • The Secret Agent – <1%, <1%, 0.65%
  • Sentimental Value – 2%, 1%, 0.45%
  • Marty Supreme – 2%, 1%, 0.30%
  • Frankenstein – <1%, <1%, 0.20%
  • Bugonia – <1%, <1%, 0.15%
  • F1 – <1%, <1%, 0.05%

Best Director

  • Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – 91%, 93%, 94.01%
  • Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – 8%, 6%, 4.55%
  • Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) – 2%, 1%, 0.86%
  • Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) – <1%, <1%, 0.32%
  • Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – <1%, <1%, 0.27%

Best Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) – 52%, 52%, 43.43%
  • Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) – 38%, 36%, 40.87%
  • Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) – 7%, 5%, 11.85%
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) – 4%, 7%, 2.47%
  • Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) – 3%, 2%, 1.38%

Best Actress

  • Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) – 96%, 96%, 95.83%
  • Rose Bryne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) – 4%, 3%, 2.80%
  • Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) – <1%, 1%, 0.69%
  • Emma Stone (Bugonia) – 2%, 1%, 0.58%
  • Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) – 2%, <1%, 0.11%

Best Supporting Actor

  • Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) – 73%, 72%, 61.53%
  • Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) – 19%, 19%, 27.50%
  • Delroy Lindo (Sinners) – 8%, 7%, 7.78%
  • Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) – 1%, 1%, 2.26%
  • Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) – 2%, 2%, 0.93%

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amy Madigan (Weapons) – 44%, 42%, 46.27%
  • Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) – 30%, 32%, 30.03%
  • Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) – 22%, 21%, 21.96%
  • Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) – 3%, 2%, 1.45%
  • Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) – <1%, 1%, 0.29%

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – 95%, 95%, 93.88%
  • Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell (Hamnet) – 4%, 4%, 4.30%
  • Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar (Train Dreams) – <1%, 1%, – 0.93%
  • Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) – <1%, 1%, 0.47%
  • Will Tracy (Bugonia) – <1%, 1%, 0.41%

Best Original Screenplay

  • Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – 96%, 95%, 95.51%
  • Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) – 2%, 2%, 2.61%
  • Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – 3%, 1%, 0.99%
  • Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian (It Was Just an Accident) – <1%, 1%, 0.68%
  • Robert Kaplow (Blue Moon) – <1%, 1%, 0.21%

Best Casting

  • Francine Maisler (Sinners) – 74%, 76%, 87.77%
  • Cassandra Kulukundis (One Battle After Another) – 16%, 15%, 5.05%
  • Gabriel Domingues (The Secret Agent) – 6%, 5%, 4.63%
  • Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) – 5%, 4%, 1.77%
  • Nina Gold (Hamnet) – 3%, 1%, 0.78%

Best Cinematography

  • Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another) – 60%, 57%, 25%
  • Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners) – 31%, 29%, 51.71%
  • Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams) – 10%, 11%, 22.46%
  • Dan Laustsen (Frankenstein) – 2%, 1%, 0.63%
  • Darius Khondji (Marty Supreme) – 2%, 1%, 0.20%

Best Costume Design

  • Kate Hawley (Frankenstein) – 92%, 92%, 93.43%
  • Ruth E. Carter (Sinners) – 7%, 5%, 4.95%
  • Malgosia Turzanska (Hamnet) – 2%, 1%, 1.06%
  • Deborah L. Scott (Avatar: Fire and Ash) – 1%, 1%, 0.28%
  • Miyako Bellizzi (Marty Supreme) – 2%, 1%, 0.28%

Best Film Editing

  • Andy Jurgensen (One Battle After Another) – 75%, 75%, 86.29%
  • Stephen Mirrione (F1) – 17%, 14%, 9.14%
  • Michael P. Shawver (Sinners) – 8%, 7%, 3.45%
  • Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – 2%, 2%, 0.90%
  • Olivier Bugge Coutté (Sentimental Value) – <1%, 1%, 0.21%

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey (Frankenstein) – 90%, 89%, 96.24%
  • Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry (Sinners) – 9%, 6%, 2.58%
  • Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg (The Ugly Stepsister) – 2%, 1%, 0.62%
  • Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu (Kokuho) – 1%, 2%, 0.45%
  • Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein (The Smashing Machine) – 1%, 2%, 0.11%

Best Production Design

  • Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau (Frankenstein) – 90.18%
  • Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne (Sinners) – 7.71%
  • Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (Hamnet) – 1.09%
  • Jack Fisk, Adam Willis (Marty Supreme) – 0.63%
  • Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino (One Battle After Another) – 0.40%

Best Music (Original Score)

  • Ludwig Goransson (Sinners) – 93%, 92%, 95.52%
  • Jonny Greenwood (One Battle After Another) – 6%, 6%, 2.53%
  • Alexandre Desplat (Frankenstein) – <1%, 1%, 0.75%
  • Max Richter (Hamnet) – 2%, 1%, 0.63%
  • Jerskin Fendrix (Bugonia) – <1%, 1%, 0.57%

Best Music (Original Song)

  • “Golden” by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park (KPop Demon Hunters) – 91%, 90%, 89.20%
  • “I Lied to You” by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson (Sinners) – 10%, 9%, 9.71%
  • “Dear Me” by Diane Warren (Diane Warren: Relentless) – <1%, <1%, 0.52%
  • “Train Dreams” by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner (Train Dreams) – <1%, <1%, 0.40%
  • “Sweet Dreams of Joy” by Nicholas Pike (Viva Verdi!) – <1%, <1%, 0.17%

Best Sound

  • Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta (F1) – 86.94%
  • Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker (Sinners) – 8.53%
  • Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas (Sirât) – 3.32%
  • Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern (Frankenstein) – 0.63%
  • José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor (One Battle After Another) – 0.57%

Best Visual Effects

  • Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett (Avatar: Fire and Ash) – 94%, 91%, 94.37%
  • Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean (Sinners) – 3%, 3%, 4.18%
  • Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson (F1) – 3%, 3%, 1.16%
  • David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould (Jurassic World Rebirth) – <1%, 2%, 0.17%
  • Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin (The Lost Bus) – <1%, 1%, 0.12%

Best Animated Feature Film

  • KPop Demon Hunters – 94%, 94%, 94.24%
  • Zootopia 2 – 6%, 5%, 4%
  • Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – 2%, 1%, 0.94%
  • Arco – 2%, 1%, 0.53%
  • Elio – <1%, <1%, 0.29%

Best Documentary Feature

  • The Perfect Neighbor – 64%, 64%, 83.22%
  • Mr. Nobody Against Putin – 19%, 18%, 12.06%
  • The Alabama Solution – 8%, 8%, 3.29%
  • Come See Me in the Good Light – 6%, 6%, 1.15%
  • Cutting Through Rocks – 3%, 2%, 0.27%

Best International Film

  • Sentimental Value – 67%, 66%, 69.75%
  • The Secret Agent – 23%, 23%, 27.65%
  • It Was Just an Accident – 10%, 9%, 1.75%
  • The Voice of Hind Rajab – 2%, 2%, 0.68%
  • Sirât – 2%, 1%, 0.17%

Best Animated Short Film

  • Butterfly – 49%, 47%, 74.35%
  • The Girl Who Cried Pearls – 32%, 29%, 17.14%
  • Retirement Plan – 13%, 14%, 3.87%
  • Forevergreen – 9%, 7%, 3.45%
  • The Three Sisters – 3%, 3%, 1.19%

Best Documentary Short

  • All the Empty Rooms – 58%, 56%, 84.03%
  • Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – 20%, 19%, 10.32%
  • The Devil Is Busy – 11%, 11%, 3.58%
  • Children No More: Were and Are Gone – 4%, 9%, 1.15%
  • Perfectly a Strangeness – 9%, 3%, 0.91%

Best Live Action Short

  • A Friend of Dorothy – 20%, 20%, 53.87%
  • Two People Exchanging Saliva – 42%, 40%, 34.39%
  • The Singers – 23%, 26%, 9%
  • Jane Austen’s Period Drama – 8%, 5%, 1.61%
  • Butcher’s Stain – 6%, 8%, 1.13%

Source: Comingsoon.net