This Film Could Win Best Picture Oscar Over One Battle After Another

A huge upset could happen over the Best Picture Oscar at the upcoming 98th Academy Awards. According to the odds from experts and prediction markets, Sinners has the best chance out of all the nominees in the category of snatching the award away from One Battle After Another. The Paul Thomas Anderson-directed thriller is still well in the lead, particularly after earning multiple nods for best feature film from other award shows. But Sinners, starring Michael B. Jordan, is gaining momentum in the final stretch before the 2026 Oscars.

Sinners has an outside shot to win 2026 Oscar Best Picture

Sinners has roughly a 17% to 20% shot of taking the Best Picture Oscar over One Battle After Another, according to various polls and betting odds (as of March 4, 2026).

The 2025 horror film written and directed by Ryan Coogler has 17% of the vote on Polymarket. This is opposed to One Battle After Another, which has the majority of the vote at 78%. The rest of the nominees for Best Picture don’t have as much of a shot to win the award, with Hamnet at 2% and both Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme at 1%. The other films in the category, which includes Train Dreams, The Secret Agent, Frankenstein, Bugonia, and F1, have less than a 1% of the vote.

Another poll conducted by Gold Derby shows similar results. After combining ballots from experts, editors, and users, Sinners received about 19% of the vote for Best Picture while One Battle After Another has 77%. That said, the editors of the site believe that Sinners has a much better shot at 37.5%. Meanwhile, Hamnet, Train Dreams, and The Secret Agent each earned 1% of the combined vote, while the other nominations mainly fell by the wayside.

Why Sinners could win the Best Picture Oscar

Among the most recent accolades that Sinners has received, the movie earned the 2026 Actor Award earlier in March for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Actors including Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, Miles Caton, Jack O’Connell, and Wunmi Mosaku shared the award.

More importantly, the film earned the prize over One Battle After Another, which has a star-studded cast of its own that includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio Del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor, Chase Infiniti, and Sean Penn.

This wouldn’t be the first time that Sinners has won Best Film or Best Picture, though its victories come from lesser known organizations: San Diego Film Critics Society, Online Film & Television Association, Astra Midseason Movie Awards, Dublin Film Critics’ Circle, Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association, and Boston Society of Film Critics.

It should also be noted that Sinners broke the record (rather easily, by the way) for the most Oscar nominations when they were announced in January. The acclaimed drama earned 16 nods, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. That’s two more than the past record of 14 nominations from Titanic (1997), La La Land (2016), and All About Eve (1950). While it did get some help by earning a nomination in the new Best Casting category, that’s still an impressive feat and shows that the Academy is more than willing to give the film recognition.

However, One Battle After Another still has the best track record heading into the Academy Awards, which will be hosted by Conan O’Brien and is set to air on Sunday, March 15, at 4 PM PT / 7 PM ET. At the latest Golden Globes in January 2026, the movie won for Best Film (Musical or Comedy), while Sinners lost to Hamnet for Best Film (Drama). The black comedy action-thriller also claimed Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards and Best Picture at the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards.

Source: Comingsoon.net