Live-Action Moana Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Is in Deep Water
The Disney live-action film Moana has received a shaky Rotten Tomatoes prediction, though this is somewhat expected amid the negative reactions to the movie’s trailers. The upcoming musical adventure, starring Dwayne Johnson as the demigod Maui and Catherine Laga’aia as the titular heroine, follows in the footsteps of other remakes from The House of Mouse, like 2025’s Lilo & Stitch and 2023’s The Little Mermaid. Directed by Thomas Kail, who is known for his work behind the 2020 theatrical version of Hamilton, the movie has a runtime of 115 minutes, which is only eight minutes longer than the original animated Moana from 2016. The live-action Moana releases nationwide on July 10, 2026, with advance screenings for the film coming out a day earlier on July 9.
Disney’s Moana is close to getting a ‘Rotten’ RT rating in early predictions
The upcoming Moana is predicted to receive a 60% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as based on a bet on Kalshi (as of June 24). The number is right on the borderline between a movie being considered ‘Fresh’ or ‘Rotten’ on the popular review site. The full results for the bet show are precariously low:
- Above 45 (Rotten Tomatoes) – 87% chance
- Above 50 – 80%
- Above 55 – 63%
- Above 60 – 51%
- Above 65 – 40%
- Above 70 – 23%
- Above 75 – 12%
- Above 80 – 3%
- Above 85 – 3%
- Above 90 – Less than 1%
That said, these Rotten Tomatoes predictions are known for being volatile, so this should be taken with a grain of salt. The film still has a few weeks for this prediction to change as the review embargo for Moana is expected to lift on July 8 at 8 AM PT / 11 AM ET, according to a report from @embargoliftsfor on Instagram. That’s only a few days after the social media embargo lifts on July 6 at 10:30 PM PT, which is when we will likely find reactions to the remake for the first time.
Starting on June 17, this bet started with a higher prediction of 66% and has dropped since then. The predicted forecast for Moana’s Rotten Tomatoes rating has bounced between a low of 58.5% and a high of 66.9%, dipping below the 60% mark several times. To put the 60% prediction into perspective, it is lower than the 67% rating for The Little Mermaid remake and the 72% rating for the Lilo & Stitch remake. It’s still higher than the 56% for 2024’s Mufasa: The Lion King and the infamously low 39% for Disney’s Snow White in 2025.
Audiences have been vocally split so far on the Moana remake. The final trailer for the movie that released on June 10 has only received about 979,000 views at this point and received about 15,000 likes to 12,000 dislikes (by way of the Return YouTube Dislike extension on Chrome). Its official trailer from March is even more divisive, getting roughly 61,000 likes to 188,000 dislikes. The user comments for both trailers have not pulled its punches either, criticizing the film for overusing CGI to the point that it might as well be an animated film, being less visually appealing as the original Moana, and adapting a feature that’s only a decade old at this point. Others are gobsmacked by the long, wavy, black wig that The Rock wears.
Still, the film is still on track to earn about $85 million in its domestic opener according to the latest box office forecasts. The June 19 report from BoxOfficeTheory has this number closer to $88 million, in light of the competition against Toy Story 5 and Supergirl, and believes that the remake will bring in $258 million for its entire domestic run. These numbers are notably below The Little Mermaid’s $95 million domestic start and $298 million full domestic total.
Source: Comingsoon.net