Masters of the Universe Box Office Predictions Show Nostalgia Might Not Be Strong Enough for a Hit
The writing has been on the wall for Masters of the Universe since box office tracking began for the nostalgic reboot. For weeks, this live-action theatrical revival of the ’80s cartoon has struggled to move the needle past its initial $25 million forecast for its domestic opener. This doesn’t mean that the movie, directed by Travis Knight and led by rising star Nicholas Galitzine, is a terrible romp by any means; on the contrary, the Amazon MGM Studios film has received a “Certified Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes where it stands at a surprisingly high 74% critics score. However, the crowded summer calendar along with a high production budget are working against Masters of the Universe in breaking even at the box office.
Masters of the Universe is merely one of many nostalgic options in June
Final box office predictions for Masters of the Universe have the film earning somewhere between $25 million and $40 million in its domestic opener from June 5 to June 7.
While the weekend forecast from BoxOffice Pro is more optimistic with its $30 million to $40 million range, BoxOfficeTheory is less bullish with its $25 million to $34 million prediction for the film’s domestic start. Both projections acknowledge the heavy competition that the action flick will need to compete against, particularly the nostalgic Scary Movie revamp that arrives this weekend as well and is expected to lead the field with a $45 million to $55 million domestic opener. Meanwhile, Backrooms and Obsession have become box office phenoms, with the A24 horror film potentially making in the range of $26 million to $35 million this weekend and taking second place above Masters of the Universe.
The trouble is that the production budget for this He-Man revival is considerably high. Variety reported that the film had cost between $170 million and $200 million to make; however, these numbers are from 2023, so there’s a chance that this budget has grown since then. That said, if we’re being generous by choosing the $170 million figure here, this means that Masters of the Universe will need to hit the $425 million mark to see a profit (the general rule is that blockbusters need to make roughly 2.5 times its budget to break even). That won’t be easy.
With its current projections, the film has been compared to the 2023 comedy Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. Despite also having stellar scores on Rotten Tomatoes (91% from critics and 92% from audiences), it only took home $208 million on a $150 million budget. Another comp is the 2024 animated film Transformers One, which made $129 million on a budget of $147 million, per Animation Magazine.
Nostalgic, action-packed reboots have struggled this year so far. May’s Mortal Kombat 2 had a rough time fighting against Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2, bringing in $126 million on an $80 million budget. And even Star Wars is having an uphill battle as The Mandalorian & Grogu has dropped off harder than expected since its launch on May 22. Even with its lower budget (for a Star Wars movie) of $165 million, the rise of Backrooms and the consistency of Obsession has partially resulted in the film making only $251 million so far. Similar to Masters of the Universe, this Star Wars outing is hoping to make somewhere around $412 million to break even, and that’s with the movie having an $81 million domestic opener.
While Masters of the Universe will receive some positive word-of-mouth from reviews, audience interest in the movie is limited as there hasn’t been a strong He-Man series for the current generation to grab a hold of. The demographic for the film is men above the age of 35, and they have many options to choose from in theaters. And that’s including Toy Story 5 and Supergirl that are both releasing this month too.
Source: Comingsoon.net