This Overlooked A24 Film Gets a Decent Box Office Prediction

The dark fantasy adventure The Death of Robin Hood, starring Hugh Jackman as a grizzled version of the titular hero, has snuck in with a fair box office forecast. As Backrooms continues to set major box office records, this other A24 production will offer something different and gritty amid a June calendar that’s full of family-friendly blockbusters. Directed and written by Michael Sarnoski, the filmmaker behind 2024’s The Quiet Place: Day One and the upcoming adaptation of Death Stranding, The Death of Robin Hood is a more realistic retelling of the aging hero (Jackman) as an outlaw who almost dies in a fight but is healed by a mysterious woman (Jodie Comer) who puts him on a path to redemption. The film is slated to release in the US on June 19, though it will premiere one week earlier on June 12 at the Sydney Film Festival.

A24’s The Death of Robin Hood will face off against Toy Story 5

The Death of Robin Hood is predicted to earn $10 million, more specifically in the range between $8 million and $13 million, in its domestic opener from June 19 to June 21. It’s expected to bring in $25 million, or somewhere between $19 million and $37 million, over its entire theatrical run.

This prediction comes from a May 29 report from BoxOfficeTheory, which has not provided numbers for the A24 film until last week. For a comparison, these estimates for The Death of Robin Hood are comparable to the $13.7 million domestic opener for The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, which comes out on June 6.

While there are no official reports on the movie’s budget, it’s not expected to be substantially large. Variety reported in 2024 that A24 had purchased the rights to distribute The Death of Robin Hood in the United States from Lyrical Media and Ryder Picture Company. At the time, these two companies “entered into a first-look deal … to produce and finance Ryder’s films, which will be genre agnostic and carry budgets of $10 million and up.” So it doesn’t appear as though the film will have a particularly high threshold to break even at the box office. We will learn more, though, once official costs for the film are known.

That said, The Death of Robin Hood has a tough uphill battle among all of the competition in June. The film arrives on the same day as Pixar’s Toy Story 5, which is looking to set a box office record for a domestic opener in 2026 with a predicted $130 million to $160 million start. Of course, this A24 movie is not expected to compete against this juggernaut on equal footing, but the dark fantasy is meant to serve as counter-programming during the month, in a similar fashion to the compilation comedy Jackass: Best and Last (June 26). Still, The Death of Robin Hood will need to contend with other blockbusters, like Masters of the Universe (June 5), Disclosure Day (June 12), and Supergirl (June 26), so audiences will have many options at the theater during the summer break.

On top of that, it will need to overcome some baggage with the box office bomb that was 2018’s Robin Hood. Co-produced by Leonardo DiCaprio, the film starring Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx had a $100 million budget but only managed to earn $86.5 million worldwide. Meanwhile, those looking for a more traditional take on the legend can watch the Robin Hood TV series on MGM+ starring Sean Bean, Jack Patten, and Lauren McQueen.

Set videos and trailers for The Death of Robin Hood have revealed how different Hugh Jackman looks in the film with his white hair and lengthy beard. Some have compared him to his older appearance in the 2017 movie Logan, except with hair that makes him look like Geralt from The Witcher.

Source: Comingsoon.net