The Mandalorian & Grogu Box Office Is Tracking Like Solo, But There’s One Big Difference

Some Star Wars fans are understandably worried about The Mandalorian & Grogu given its latest box office predictions. Various projections have the upcoming LucasFilm production earning over $80 million in its domestic opener, compared to the $84 million that 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story made on its way to being a massive flop for the franchise. That would indeed be concerning, at least on the surface. However, the reported budget for The Mandalorian movie is far more frugal than expected and reveals that Disney is smartly trimming the fat where it can.

The budget for The Mandalorian & Grogu is notably low for a Star Wars film

As of May 11, The Mandalorian & Grogu is predicted to bring in around $86.5 million, or in the range between $74 million and $90 million, in its domestic opening weekend from May 22 to May 24. For its entire run in US and Canadian theaters, it’s projected to earn $215 million, or in the ballpark from $152 million to $228 million.

These latest numbers from BoxOfficeTheory are a slight improvement from its prior prediction. Its May 8 report notes that the movie, starring Pedro Pascal, Sigourney Weaver, and Jeremy Allen White as the voice for Rotta the Hutt (that’s Jabba the Hutt’s son), has had “a slight uptick in momentum during the past week.” Its position as “the lone major Memorial Day opener” could grab the attention of Star Wars fans and audiences looking for a casual family-friendly flick, in the same vein as Ryan Gosling’s Project Hail Mary that released earlier in the year. The figures line up with the $80 million to $90 million domestic opener range from BoxOffice Pro, so box office tracking for the film is looking consistent.

While these $80M+ projections are solid for a blockbuster, it’s close to the $84.4M domestic opener for Solo: A Star Wars Story and much lower than the $177M for 2019’s Star Wars: Episode IX. Both films had a massive budget of $275 million. If we use the general rule that films need to earn 2.5 times its budget to make a profit, that means that they needed to pass the very high bar of $687 million just to break even. Star Wars 9 cleared this benchmark with its $1.07 billion worldwide haul, while Solo didn’t with its $392 million. And The Mandalorian & Grogu is a Star Wars spinoff like Solo is; hence, the concern.

However, the production budget for the film is reportedly $166 million, according to the California Film Commission, after Disney received around $21 million in tax credits as part of California’s Film and TV Tax Credit Program. The movie earned the tax break for being the first Star Wars feature “to be shot entirely in California” and for injecting “an estimated $166 million into the state’s economy.”

This means that The Mandalorian & Grogu only needs to cross the $415 million mark to be profitable. So if the film brings in what Solo did at $392 million, as a bad case scenario, the loss won’t be significant. Disney has done what it could to mitigate the chances of the movie having a poor outing.

In early May, we reported that the Jon Favreau-directed film was predicted to earn a 73% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which is slightly higher than Solo’s 69% and Star Wars 9’s 51%. That has since jumped up to a 75% rating, though reviews for the movie have yet to come out yet. According to EmbargoLiftsFor on X (formerly Twitter), the review embargo is set for May 19, several days before its theatrical release date of May 22 in the US.

Source: Comingsoon.net