Oscars 2027 Bets on Best Picture Nominees Are Missing Some Key Movies

It’s way too early for Oscars 2027 bets, but many have already put their money on who will earn a Best Picture nomination. The list of potential nominees is expansive given that the Academy anointed ten films (instead of the five it did before 2009), so these early predictions are on the safer side as far as bets go. However, the spread is missing a handful of movies that could make the final cut.

We’ve already covered some of the films that people think will dominate the 99th Academy Awards, and those two movies are unsurprisingly near the top of the pile. It won’t be until January 2027 that the Academy will officially announce the nominees, so we’ve got a long time for people to change their bets, especially as reviews and fan reactions for the movies on this list roll in. Still, that hasn’t stopped movie buffs from reading the tea leaves for next year’s Oscars.

Early odds on Oscars 2027 Best Picture nominees

Five movies have odds higher than 50% to be nominated for Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars, according to a bet on Kalshi (as of March 24). A good number of the other films in the spread have odds over 25%, so they’re hardly out of the picture. The full list of bets can be found below (but we expect these odds to change drastically before 2026 is through).

• The Odyssey – 88%
• Dune: Part Three – 76%
• Digger – 67%
• Wild Horse Nine – 65%
• Project Hail Mary – 64%
• Disclosure Day – 44%
• Fjord – 39%
• Josephine – 39%
• The Adventures of Cliff Booth – 38%
• Saturn Return – 38%
• The Social Reckoning – 37%
• Parallel Tales – 31%
• All of a Sudden – 30%
• Behemoth – 29%
• Michael – 29%
• Cry to Heaven – 30%
• Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew – 27%
• Werwulf – 27%
• Artifical – 20%
• Ink – 19%
• Sense and Sensibility – 19%
• I Love Boosters – 18%
• The Entertainment System Is Down – 16%
• The Death of Robin Hood – 11%
• The Drama – 10%
• Avengers: Doomsday – 6%

The top two contenders, The Odyssey and Dune Part 3, are no surprise. Set to arrive in the summer on July 17, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey already has a reported budget of $250 million and stars the likes of Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Charlize Theron, and Zendaya. This adaptation of the Homer classic has Oscar bait written all over it, harkening back to The Gladiator which won Best Picture in 2001. Meanwhile, Dune Part 3 is the much-anticipated end of Denis Villeneuve’s Dune trilogy, and while Part 2 didn’t receive as many Oscar nods as the first film did, this capper has the potential to rake in awards out of a sense of completion.

Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ Project Hail Mary has received widespread acclaim and could be given the nod for several technical Oscars. Digger is already on the short list as it is directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu and stars Tom Cruise in a non-action role that could finally give him the Best Actor Oscar win. Also in the conversation is Wild Horse Nine given that it’s headed by Martin McDonagh, another director that the Academy favors.

Close behind them in the middle of the pack is Stephen Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, a film that reunites the famed director with his favorite subject — aliens. The sci-fi flick features a soundtrack by John Williams and a star-studded cast with Emily Blunt, Josh O’Conner, Colin Firth, and Colman Domingo.

It is joined by two sequels, The Social Reckoning that is a companion piece to 2010’s The Social Network and The Adventures of Cliff Booth that interestingly has director David Fincher follow up on 2019’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood directed by Quentin Tarantino, who serves as a writer for the upcoming film.

Several Best Picture candidates are not on the list

While the betting spread has over 25 movies on the list, there are a few that it doesn’t mention. Among the snubs is Tony, directed by Matt Johnson, that is a biographical drama based on the life of famed food icon Anthony Bourdain. The biopic, which stars Dominic Sessa and Antonio Banderas, could tug on the heartstrings as a profile of a beloved figure who passed way too soon.

Being Heumann, which dramatizes the work of disability activist Judith Heumann, isn’t on the list either, though several critics are spotlighting the Apple Studios film early in the year. That said, the biopic genre will be saturated in 2026 with Michael that goes through the life of Michael Jackson, Artificial that covers OpenAI’s Sam Altman, and Ink that stars Guy Pearce as controversial newspaper magnate Rupert Murdoch.

Another contender that’s missing from the spread is the film, Clarissa, which reimagines the famous 1925 novel Mrs Dalloway by Virginia Woolf. Directed and produced by brothers Arie Esiri and Chuko Esiri, the film has been picked up by distributor Neon, which is known for picking movies that have award potential, such as 2026 Best Picture Oscar nominees The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. That’s why some of Neon’s other picks, like Fjord, All of a Sudden, and Parallel Tales, are on the betting list; however, a few like Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard are conspicuously not on the list either.

The Dog Stars, directed by Ridley Scott, could be a spoiler too, with the postapocalyptic film casting the likes of Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley. Similarly, the upcoming crime drama Paper Tiger, starring Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller, could make waves for its cast as well. The actors in both of these movies have the potential of getting a Best Actor or Actress nod, which would help in putting the films in the Best Picture circle.

Source: Comingsoon.net