Fans Think Michael Box Office Projections Are ‘Being Ignorant’

An early box office projection for Michael, the upcoming 2026 biopic for the pop superstar, has arrived, but many fans think that it’s strangely low. The musical film, directed by Antoine Faqua and starring Michael Jackson’s nephew Jaafar Jackson in the titular role, gained a lot of hype in 2025. Back in November, a teaser for the film went viral and surpassed 30 million views within just a few hours of its release. That’s why many are comparing the movie to other successful musical biopics, like Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) and Elvis (2022), though given the pop star’s recognition worldwide, its box office potential could be much bigger.

How much will Michael earn at the box office in its opening weekend?

The Michael film is expected to earn somewhere between $52 million and $65 million in its opening weekend at the domestic box office, according to a preliminary prediction from the analytics site BoxOfficeTheory.

For comparison, Elvis earned $31 million in its domestic opener before earning a total of $288 million worldwide, while Bohemian Rhapsody exceeds that with its $51 million domestic opener and $910 million worldwide total. This means that the report believes that Michael will go past these benchmarks, at least for its opening numbers.

However, the majority of commenters with many upvotes in a thread on the Box Office Reddit think that the $52M-$65M range is still a lowball, with one saying that it’s humorously ‘being ignorant.’ One user thinks that Michael could bring in $100 million in its domestic opener, while another believes that if an original movie like Sinners could bring in nearly $50 million in its opener, then Michael will easily go beyond that. Early projections don’t yet have a figure for how much this biopic will earn worldwide, but some are predicting that it will go over the $1 billion mark at the box office.

Variety reports that the production budget for the film is roughly $155 million, which means that it will need to rake in about $375 million to $400 million for it to break even. So if the movie makes anything close to what Bohemian Rhapsody did, it would be a major box office achievement.

One commenter points out that Lionsgate Films looks confident in the success of Michael given the opportunity for early screenings. In the second week of March, the studio announced that the movie will play in IMAX and premium large formats on Wednesday, April 22, several days before its theatrical debut in the US on Friday, April 24. Tickets for the pre-sale went live on March 11. The argument goes that if Lionsgate didn’t think the film was strong enough, it would have delayed pre-sales and would have held screenings until April 24, thereby delaying reviews for the movie.

Despite the criticism, the early box office projection for Michael is still positive about its potential haul in sales. The report says that the film is already “in record territory” when it comes to biopics in the music genre, when compared to Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody, and that its current ceiling of $65 million is tentative. It points to Jaafar Jackson, who will be making his debut as an actor in the film, as a curiosity for audiences, and that the rest of the cast, which includes Miles Teller, Colman Domingo, and Nia Long, will be another draw.

Antoine Fuqua, who is known for being the director for Training Day, and the movie’s screenwriter John Logan, who wrote Skyfall and Gladiator, are well-respected and know how to deliver when it comes to high-budget projects.

The movie has been subject to a few controversies as well, which has kept the film in the headlines. Apart from breaking records for trailers, Lionsgate plans on splitting Michael into two parts and a portion of the biopic needed to be reshot since some scenes revolved around Jordan Chandler, who the Jackson estate was not allowed to include in the project due to a legal agreement. This is partly why Michael was delayed to 2026, though any press can be good press in the leadup of a film.

Source: Comingsoon.net