Why Super Mario Galaxy Movie Has Lower Box Office Projections Than the First Film

While many fans are hoping that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will beat the original 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie at the box office, several reports caution that this might not be the case. Indeed, it will be difficult for this sequel to top the success of the first film, which earned a whopping $1.36 billion at the box office, with $574 million of that coming domestically. Releasing on Wednesday, April 1, this follow-up from Illumination, Nintendo, and Universal Pictures is still projected to be a blockbuster hit. But while it will likely cross the $1 billion mark over time, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie may not jump as high as its predecessor.

What are the latest Super Mario Galaxy Movie box office predictions?

Reports are conflicted on how much The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will make at the box office. Some have the film bringing in only $90 million at the lower range for its domestic opening weekend, while others are far more confident with it earning the upper range of $160 million.

For context, The Super Mario Bros. Movie (which also released on a Wednesday on April 5, 2023) earned $146 million over its 3-day domestic opening weekend (from Friday to Sunday) and $204 million if we expand that to the 5-day weekend (from Wednesday to Sunday). So some figures believe that the sequel will underperform, while others think that it will break records.

The lower projections are mainly based on a March 13 report from BoxOfficeTheory, which believes that the movie will only earn $105 million (or $90 million to $123 million) in its 3-day domestic opening weekend and roughly $147 million for the 5-day projection. Deadline’s latest analysis on March 12 is more mixed, projecting that the sequel will earn more than $160 million over the 5-day period. Meanwhile, BoxOfficePro has the most favorable predictions for the movie — $145 million to $160 million (3-day) and $160 million to $175 million (5-day). However, that optimistic $175 million figure is still less than original film’s $204 million.

On the brighter side, it’s assumed that the production budget for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is around $100 million, the same as the first film’s. If these numbers are right, it would mean that the movie will only need to make $250 million at the box office to break even, a figure that it will most likely smash to smithereens within a week or two after release.

Why The Super Mario Galaxy Movie might not beat the original film at the box office

The greatest obstacle that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie faces is a lack of novelty. Its predecessor built a lot of anticipation as many fans of the video game franchise wanted to see a high-quality animated Super Mario film. Now that has happened, the sequel doesn’t have as much hype, even with its introduction of the green dinosaur Yoshi.

In addition, the movie might not be positioned too well in the theatrical calendar. It follows the February release of Sony Pictures Animation’s GOAT, which has earned $163 million at the box office (as of March 16), and the March release of Pixar’s Hoppers, which has banked $164 million two weeks after its debut. We’ll have to see if these animated films might fatigue viewers for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Meanwhile, the sci-fi movie Project Hail Mary, starring Ryan Gosling, is slated to release on March 20 and its high box office potential could take some of the casual theater-goers with it.

On the other hand, these movies likely placed themselves behind The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to avoid the assured success of this sequel. More to the point, Deadline admits that its box office projections are “conservative,” and it should be noted that it originally projected that the first film would only get at least $80 million to $90 million in its domestic opening weekend — that’s $50 million short of its actual total. So, it’s possible that this sequel will overperform in a similar way, while also gaining ground at the international box office given the brand’s global appeal.

Source: Comingsoon.net